DISQUS

the99th · 2 months ago

I don´t know if t-bills are the best recommendation for the retail investor, if you haven´t noticed rates have been pushed lower with the dollar, so if the dollar rallies then interest rates and the value of the bonds may continue that relationship, rates going up but not as disastrously as if the risk trade were still in full force. After all, the USA is the biggest black hole, just because the USD will crash last doesn´t mean you´re safe.

But I suppose you can´t go on CNBC and say "put your money in a margin account and start position trading short against the carry trade currencies".

Up 600% realized in the past two weeks. Holla back!

dvolatility · 2 months ago

Yeah good point, I wish I could put a chart $IRX/$USD on Disqus... Ha isn't there a carry trade ETF? I think he's just looking out for the average investor, keeping them risk free w/ short duration. Prechter is battling the printing press though. If the next down wave is strong and damages the usd denominated carry trade, and ruins all risk trades, wouldn't money squeeze the USD and flow into short bills? Or do you think monetary inflation is too strong to correct real assets if that turn comes. Maybe that is why there's a current gold rush. We'll see......... Btw nice posts.

the99th · 2 months ago

No you´re right, I was thinking of long-date bonds, my mistake.

This is my "fundamentals" - its all a big scam, right? That´s obvious. I also suspect that Argentina 2001 was an experiment to see how power can be retained when the confetti party goes vertical, living here makes that all the more interesting as a speculator.

What screws over the most people while profiting the insiders? In Argentina it was yields breaking out and the currency devaluing while deflation in domestic assets allowed the Argenati to bring their dollars back in from Switzerland and buy up the whole place for an 80% discount. I think this is where things are going elsewhere, but first, the insiders are going to want to take that cash they´ve just been transfered via QE and other stimilus (not to mention the carry trade, the ramp-o-riffic equity rally, ect.) and have it appreciate in value, perhaps even more so than when it began to be typed into existence back in March. And THEN we´re going to get the firebombing of the casino. When it comes it won´t be inflation as we know it, it´ll be nominal inflation and deflation against gold or what have you, deflation on internet time with fiat currency.

I do not think the Dollar entered a supercyclical bull wave in July 2008, I think it entered a cyclical corrective bull preceeding the big Wave 3 down.

Funny you mention gold, I´ve been using it as a hedge during this shorting adventure and its performed really well, its almost as if gold is the heaven that dead trades fly to when they get stopped out in "riskier" assets. Still gold will probably get under $900 before it goes above $1150, that´s my current theory. I don´t bother shorting gold because there are so many better things to short, like... everything else.